The 2023-24 season was a lost cause in South Beach as injuries, inconsistent effort and a roster relatively devoid of talent could only muster 46 wins and the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference.
That five-game drubbing by Boston was emblematic of how Miami has fallen so far in the NBA hierarchy in just a year, as their talent level was severely outclassed by a Celtics team that they beat in an iconic Conference Finals battle the prior season.
The Heat took advantage of a down 2022-23 campaign for the league as a whole, but several teams have made huge improvements, and now Miami is battling for position in the middle of the NBA.
Heat fans may blame their flameout on Jimmy Butler ‘s injury, but the reality is that they have been a mediocre regular season team for years and rely on Butler to carry inadequate rosters to deep playoff runs.
With Butler turning 35 before opening night this season and his unreliable health, Miami must admit to itself that the run is over unless the franchise makes a significant trade.
Whether the Heat take a swing towards contention or enter a rebuild, here are the three players likely to be traded.
1Jimmy Butler
Jimmy may have worn out his welcome in South Beach
Butler has been an incredible player for the Heat in his five years in Florida, shouldering a massive burden on both sides of the ball for a half-decade as he carried Miami to two NBA Finals runs and a trip to the Conference Finals despite playing alongside less talent than most superstars.
He provided many legendary moments and embodied Heat culture in a way that few superstars can.
But it might be time for a breakup for several reasons: his age and injury history, upcoming contract situation, his lack of commitment to the regular season and recent public controversies surrounding team president Pat Riley.
Even with Butler mostly healthy throughout the last five regular seasons, Miami has struggled to escape play-in territory several times, and its outlook is as bleak as ever with the quickly improving Eastern Conference.
After being outclassed by Boston in a first-round exit in 2023-24, Miami enters this year as approximately the seventh-best squad in the East, and that may be generous considering Butler’s age and decline.
Miami Heat’s Jimmy Butler Regular Season Problem | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season | Record | Seed | Net Rating | Butler Games Missed |
2019-20 | 44-29 | 5th | 2.7 (7th) | 15 |
2020-21 | 40-32 | 6th | -0.1 (17th) | 20 |
2021-22 | 53-29 | 1st | 4.5 (6th) | 25 |
2022-23 | 44-38 | 8th | -0.5 (21st) | 18 |
2023-24 | 46-46 | 8th | 1.8 (17th) | 22 |
Butler and the franchise have publicly disagreed over an impending four-year max extension, with Miami asking him to play in more games to earn the contract he wants.
With Butler entering his age-35 season, the Heat cannot pay him north of $60 million per year and remain competitive over the next five years, considering the miles on his body and the relative lack of talent around him.
All of these factors could lead to Butler being shipped out before this year is over, whether to ignite a complete rebuild around Bam Adebayo or to quickly pivot to a new core of players that can contend for titles sooner rather than later.
Knowing Heat Culture, it is likely the latter.
Several teams, including the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks , were rumored to be interested in the Heat’s superstar, but Miami seems to be hanging onto him for now.
That said, if a perfect trade arises or the team gets off to a rough start in 2024-25, Butler could be on his way out the door.
2Tyler Herro
The Kentucky product is a good player, but may not be valuable enough to winning
The crux of the Tyler Herro phenomenon and the reason he has been mentioned in trade rumors seemingly every day for the past few years is simple: His contract is perfect to help match the salary of an incoming star, and while he is a solid scorer, he likely isn’t good enough to contribute to a championship team when considering his other shortcomings.
Herro has averaged over 20 points per game for three straight years on excellent efficiency, but he doesn’t do much else to help the team and is an exploitable defender.
That’s not to say that he couldn’t be helpful to a great team as a sixth man, but he is Miami’s third-highest-paid player and is not that level of valuable.
Tyler Herro Last 3 Seasons | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Season | PPG | APG | 3P% | TS% |
2021-22 | 20.7 | 4.0 | 39.9 | 56.1 |
2022-23 | 20.1 | 4.2 | 37.8 | 56.6 |
2023-24 | 20.8 | 4.5 | 39.6 | 55.8 |
*Herro won Sixth Man of the Year in 2021-22
Miami is either stuck with him on a $31 million per year deal until 2026-27, which could trap the franchise in the play-in range, or it can use his contract as the central piece in a trade for whoever the next available star is.
Unfortunately, Herro isn’t valuable enough to fetch that type of return on his own, meaning the Heat would have to throw in multiple young players and draft picks to acquire said star.
This is a huge reason why they’ve failed to pull the trigger on any of the Bradley Beal , Donovan Mitchell or Damian Lillard trades.
Whether Miami wants to make a move for Lauri Markkanen , Darius Garland or any of the guys that may become available in the future, Herro will likely be a key asset in a possible deal.
A backcourt of Herro and Terry Rozier at nearly $60 million puts Miami outside the championship bubble, regardless of Butler’s status.
3Nikola Jović
Jovic is one of the few young assets Miami has
NBA fans became familiar with the fact that the Heat have just two young and desirable assets during their 2023 offseason pursuit of Lillard.
The star point guard was ultimately dealt to the Milwaukee Bucks , but there were many potential trade packages floated to the Portland Trail Blazers involving Jović and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Miami seemed very reluctant to deal them in addition to other draft assets, which is why the deal ultimately fell through.
After an excellent season in which he finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting, it appears Miami has made Jaquez a somewhat untouchable commodity, meaning that Jović would be the logical next choice to be used in any star trade going forward.
While Jović showcased incredible potential himself as a prototypical big, versatile wing by shooting 39.9 percent from three at 6-foot-10, he is still a work in progress for a team that claims to want to return to contention.
Jaime Jaquez vs. Nikola Jović (2023-24 Stats) | ||||
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Player | PPG | RPG | MPG | TS% |
Jaquez | 11.9 | 3.8 | 28.2 | 57.4 |
Jović | 7.7 | 4.2 | 19.5 | 58.3 |
Jaquez Playoffs | 12.8 | 3.3 | 30.8 | 46.3 |
Jović Playoffs | 9.4 | 6.6 | 25.6 | 60.1 |
If they hang onto Butler and ride out his career as title contenders, Miami doesn’t have time to wait for Jović to become an elite player, meaning they will likely have to move the 21-year-old in a deal that raises their ceiling once again.
Although Jović is a tantalizing prospect with tremendous potential, Miami must choose between winning now with the aging Butler and building for the future.