After a win against the Cleveland Guardians on June 18, the Seattle Mariners increased their lead to 10.0 games in the AL West. Armed with arguably the best starting rotation in the league, it felt like a foregone conclusion that Seattle would win the AL West and be considered a major threat in the postseason.
Unfortunately, a 36-45 record since has Seattle with an 80-76 record with six games to go. Not only have the Houston Astros overtaken them in the AL West, but the Mariners find themselves facing an uphill battle in the postseason race, trailing Houston by 5.0 games in the division and trailing the Kansas City Royals by 2.0 games for the third Wild Card spot.
They’re not eliminated, but FanGraphs gives them 6.3 percent odds to make the playoffs. They’ll have to perform well in the final week of the season despite three of their games being on the road against the Astros, and will likely need some help as well to have a shot at the postseason.
With how good their pitching is, they shouldn’t be in this position. They should be sitting comfortably in a postseason spot even if the Astros are a better team. The fact that they are not is alarming and shows that major changes will need to be made this offseason if they do miss out. The beginning of those changes could be letting these three free agents walk.
3) The Mariners should prioritize offensive help over a Yimi Garcia reunion
The Mainers were as active as any team at this year’s MLB trade deadline, acquiring several position players to try and improve their reeling offense but also acquiring Yimi Garcia to shore up the bullpen.
Unfortunately, Garcia has not been nearly as good as he was with the Toronto Blue Jays, allowing six runs in nine innings of work across 10 appearances with Seattle, and also missing substantial time due to injury. He’s been out since the middle of August, and it’s unclear if and when he’ll return as of this writing.
Despite his struggles with the Mariners, he’d be an intriguing arm to bring back for the bullpen with his solid track record in mind. However, the Mariners need to invest whatever money they have into the offense. If Garcia is willing to take a small deal to return that’s worth exploring, but barring a team-friendly ask, the Mariners are better off moving on.
2) The Mariners should let Justin Turner go and pursue an upgrade this offseason
Justin Turner was another one of the several players that the Mariners traded for at the deadline and he has been solid in a Seattle uniform, slashing .262/.360/.407 with five home runs and 18 RBI in 43 games. He has been playing first base just about every day, has gotten on base a ton, and has stepped his game up overall since joining the Mariners.
While that all sounds good, Turner is a player who will likely want to play regularly as he has down the stretch in Seattle and the Mariners should not allow that to happen. This is a team in dire need of a major offensive boost, and at first base, there are better options to consider.
There’s no reason that the Mariners cannot heavily pursue high-priced free agents such as Christian Walker and Pete Alonso who can play first base at a higher level defensively and offer way more offensively, especially in the power department. It’d cost money, but with the pitching that they have, it’s time for this organization to go all-in.
Turner is a fine complimentary player to have, but he’ll also be 40 years old in November, and his best days are behind him. The Mariners can and should do better at first base and DH.
1) The Jorge Polanco trade proved to be a massive failure for the Mariners
As Jerry Dipoto seemingly always is, he was extremely active on the trade market this offseason, executing several deals to try and get this Mariners team over the top. Arguably the biggest one of them all saw the Mariners acquire Jorge Polanco, a consistently solid offensive-minded second baseman. That deal has not worked out in the slightest.
The Mariners didn’t give much up in hindsight, thankfully, but Polanco has been far from the player he was brought in to be. Despite having one of his healthiest seasons in recent memory, Polanco is slashing .206/.290/.343 with 15 home runs and 42 RBI in 113 games. His 88 OPS+ is over 20 points below his career mark of 109.
He was starting to finally get things going in late July and early August, but Polanco has hit the skids in September once again, slashing .175/.221/.286 with two home runs and five RBI in 17 games. He has come up extremely small at a time when Seattle’s offense has picked up and when the Mariners really need him the most.
His $12 million club option looked like a bargain entering this season, but at this point, it’s tough to envision Seattle realistically picking it up. If they’re going to be spending eight figures, they’d be better off exploring the free agent market for a bigger upgrade.
