Dan Lanning has won 22 of his first 27 games as the head coach at Oregon, with the only two losses last season coming to national runner-up Washington by three points each. In Year 3, he feels he has a roster to not just reach the expanded College Football Playoff, but to win it.
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Three of the program’s past four recruiting classes ranked in the top 10 nationally, and Lanning, with an assist from the Nike-fueled Division Street collective, has been relentless the past two offseasons in loading up via the transfer portal.
“What’s intentional (with the portal) is making sure that you have the best roster you can possibly have,” he said. “It’s no secret that the team that won the national championship last year had the most guys drafted.”
Oregon has not made a CFP since Marcus Mariota led the Ducks there in 2014, the first season of the four-team format. But were there a 12-team field, the Ducks may have had several more bites at the apple, having finished in the top 10 in the CFP rankings in 2019 and 2023 and reaching as high as No. 3 in 2021 under Mario Cristobal. Between its national brand and much-envied NIL support, Oregon should be a CFP contender more often than not.
Moving to the more prestigious Big Ten does not alter the Ducks’ prospects in the slightest.
“Football’s football still,” Lanning, 38, said. “Even though it’s a different conference, winning ball still looks very similar.”
Going back to the days of Chip Kelly and Dennis Dixon, winning football at Oregon usually starts with explosive offenses, led by star QBs like Mariota, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix. The Ducks’ 2024 unit should be as potent as ever.
With Nix off to the Denver Broncos, Lanning reeled in former UCF and Oklahoma starter Dillon Gabriel, the most accomplished QB in the 2023-24 portal cycle. He gets to play behind a stout offensive line that’s allowed just 10 combined sacks over the past two seasons, led by tackles Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius. Tez Johnson, a 1,182-yard receiver for the Ducks last season, and Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart lead a deep receiving corps. And tight end Terrance Ferguson is seen as an NFL talent.
But Lanning’s background is on the other side of the ball. He and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi have sought to transform the Ducks defense to look more like the elite SEC versions they coached when Lanning was running Kirby Smart’s 2021 national championship defense at Georgia and when Lupoi spent five seasons as an assistant for Nick Saban at Alabama.
They aren’t lacking for big bodies, like ends Jordan Burch (6-6, 295) and Matayo Uiagalelei (6-5, 270), Michigan State transfer tackle Derrick Harmon (6-5, 310) and Houston transfer defensive tackle Jamaree Caldwell (6-1, 340). Other proven veterans include middle linebacker Jeffrey Bassa, safety Tysheem Johnson and cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, who lined up opposite the Ducks for Washington last season.
“We’re certainly a lot closer to that (SEC) caliber,” said Lupoi. “That takes time to build.”
Oregon is all in on Lanning as the guy to complete that build. After watching Willie Taggart, then Cristobal use the program as a springboard to other jobs, AD Rob Mullens inked the then-36-year-old to a uniquely binding contract. It includes a staggering $20 million buyout on his part were he to leave for another job. Lanning was the first name to be mentioned for the Alabama job when Saban abruptly retired in January, a possibility he quickly shot down with a splashy video.
“The Ducks are not going anywhere,” read a caption, “and I’m not leaving.”
Oregon may not be a blue blood like Alabama or Ohio State, but it has been one of the sport’s 10 winningest programs since the turn of the century. The Ducks’ Fiesta Bowl rout of Liberty on Jan. 1 marked their fifth BCS or New Year’s Six bowl win since 2011. And thanks to benefactor Phil Knight and his Nike billions, its NIL collective, Division Street — run by former Nike execs — is one of the envies of the sport.
But the one fence it’s not yet cleared is winning a natty, falling one step short in 2010 (to Auburn) and 2014 (to Ohio State). Time will tell whether the 12-team Playoff helps or hurts its chances.
go-deeper
GO DEEPER
Think Dan Lanning will leave Oregon? Check the ink
The coach
In just two seasons, Lanning has established himself as one of the sport’s rising stars, not just with his on-field results but his off-field persona. His defining moment to date was his fiery locker-room speech broadcast by ABC before the Ducks’ clash with then-undefeated Colorado last year, where he proclaimed, “They’re fighting for clicks, we’re fighting for wins.” Oregon pounded Deion Sanders’ team 42-6 in a game watched by more than 10 million TV viewers.
But his early tenure has not been without flaws. Lanning is 1-4 against rivals Washington and Oregon State. The 2022 and first 2023 loss to the Huskies were defined by several aggressive fourth-down calls by Lanning that backfired, most notably a doomed fourth-and-3 with 2:16 left in Seattle in October that allowed Michael Penix Jr. to drive Washington to the winning touchdown. The Ducks were near 10-point favorites when the teams rematched in the Pac-12 championship game but again fell, 34-31.
Ducks fans will expect their coach to deliver not just victories but blowouts this fall against both of their rebuilding rivals — and, at a minimum, a Playoff at-large berth.
Dillon Gabriel passed for 14,865 yards at UCF and Oklahoma. (Ben Lonergan / Register-Guard / USA Today Network)
The QB
Losing Nix, a Heisman finalist who made an FBS-record 61 career starts, would usually seem like a daunting challenge to overcome, but Oregon replaces him with another ultra-experienced starter in Gabriel. The sixth-year senior could well break Nix’s own record, having already made 49 starts over five seasons at UCF (2019-21) and Oklahoma (2022-23). (He started three games in 2021 before suffering a season-ending injury, thus earning him a sixth year.) He earned first-team All-Big 12 honors for the Sooners last season, leading them to 10 wins and a dramatic Red River upset of Playoff-bound Texas.
Upon receiving disappointing NFL Draft feedback, the Hawaii native — who grew up watching and revering Mariota — opted to use his final year of eligibility in Eugene. He will wear Mariota’s old No. 8 jersey.
“He’s kind of seamlessly added himself into this team,” offensive coordinator Will Stein said, “and then over the course of the past six months really built up his rapport with the guys as a leader.”
Should Gabriel suffer any injuries, Oregon would turn to either another portal addition, UCLA’s Dante Moore, a former five-star recruit who struggled as a true freshman starter last season, or redshirt freshman Austin Novosad, a Texas native who went 5-of-7 for 38 yards in mop-up duty in the Ducks’ Fiesta Bowl rout of Liberty.
