BYU and Houston both started off their Big 12 campaigns with wins. BYU beat Arizona State by 20 in Provo while Houston went on the road and beat Oklahoma State — the lowest rated Big 12 KenPom team — by 13 in Stillwater.
Houston lacks a signature win and hasn’t been quite as their dominant level they were last year with Jamal Shead, but they are an analytics darling and have crushed teams in their 10 wins.
On paper, this is one of BYU’s two hardest games this season along with the road trip at Iowa State. Houston has the nation’s longest active win streak at 29 games and has pummeled inferior opponents at home this season. A loss here is expected and won’t throw off BYU’s season, but a win would present a massive opportunity for BYU to pick up a signature win and put themselves in the earlier conversation as a Big 12 title contender.
BYU-Houston by the Numbers
Houston KenPom: 4
NET: 6
AP Poll: 14
Record: 9-3
Wins: Jackson St, Louisiana, Hofstra, Notre Dame, Butler, Troy, Toledo, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Oklahoma State
Losses: Auburn (N), Alabama (N), San Diego State (N)
BYU KenPom: 34
NET: 40
AP: n/a
Record: 10-2
Wins: Central Arkansas, UC Riverside, Queens, Idaho, Mississippi Valley State, NC State, Fresno State, Wyoming, Florida A&M, Arizona State
Losses: Ole Miss, Providence
KenPom Prediction: Houston 73, BYU 62 — Houston 85% win probability
Spread: Houston -11.5
Point Total: 135.5
Houston Overview
As has always been the case under Kelvin Sampson, Houston is among the nation’s best defensive teams. In fact, KenPom ranks Houston #1 in defensive efficiency. The Coogs have no real defensive deficiencies. They allow opponents to shoot 37% from two — best in the nation — and opponents shoot 28.5% from three, which is top 25 nationally. They don’t force quite as many turnovers as last season, but are still top 30 nationally in turnover percentage.
Two of Houston’s losses were on neutral courts to Auburn and Alabama — arguably the two best offenses in college basketball — and the third was a more suprising loss in Las Vegas to a good but not overwhelming San Diego State team.
One area where Houston has been better than years past is 3-point shooting. The Coogs are shooting 40.6% from three, which is 7th nationally. 5th-year senior LJ Cryer is one of the best shooters nationally and isn’t afraid to hoist shots. The 6-foot-1 guard leads Houston with 15.1 ppg and shoots an average of 7 3PA per game at a 42% clip. Backcourt mate Emanuel Sharp averages 13.7 and shoots just over 5 3PA per game at a 48% clip. Houston has other guys that are respectable outside shooters, but Cryer and Sharp are the two guys you have to locate on the perimeter. Depite their 3-point efficiency, Houston doesn’t rely on the 3-point ball as the main source of offense — 35% of their field goal attempts are from three, which is #282 nationally.
As is always the case with Houston, rebounding will be a huge factor in this one. Houston crashes the offensive glass with their punishing frontcourt duo fo J’Wan Robets and Joseph Tugler. The 6-foot-8 Roberts particularly embodies Kelvin Sampson’s program and is the backbone of this team. Robets is in his fifth year in the program and averages 9 points and 7 boards. 6-foot-8 Joseph Tugler starts next to him and averages 2.5 blocks in just 20 mintues per game. Neither is very tall, but both are very physical and work to assert their physical dominance on both ends of the floor.
One glaring weakness for Houston has been their struggles in close games. All 9 Houston wins are by double-digits. When they are at their best, they are like an andaconda that slowly chokes the life out of opponents. All three of their losses are by 5 points or fewer and two of them are in overtime. Oklahoma point guard Milos Uzan is a good point guard that averages 9 points and 5 assists on 37% shooting from three, but he is not the player that Jamal Shead was. Shead was the foundation of that Houston team and made numerous shots in the clutch.
Prediction
BYU has struggled with physical defenses that pressure the ball. That’s what Houston will try to do to BYU. Are Egor Demin and Dallin Hall up to the challenge? Those two guys will need to step up if BYU is to pull the upset. Dallin Hall in particular can be an x-factor. I anticipate Hall will have 6-foot-1 LJ Cryer matched up on him for much of the game. Cryer is Houston’s top scorer, but their weakest defender. Hall showed last year he could exploit mismatches versus smaller guards. I am curious how much Kevin Young tries to put Hall in positions to break down Cryer.
Egor Demin can also swing this game towards BYU. Demin passed the ball well and opened things up for BYU’s offense versus Arizona State, but he hasn’t had his breakout game yet versus a power conference team. Very soon we’re going to get a game from Egor that makes us say, “wow, that is a top 3 pick.” Could Houston be that game? On one hand, Houston’s pressure could force Egor into turnovers and a rough shooting night. On the other end, Houston’s pressure could allow Egor to fire passes over their smaller guards and make Houston pay anytime they try to pressure him. San Diego State didn’t shoot the ball particularly well in their upset over Houston, but they had just 7 turnovers and didn’t give away points.
Outside of those players, rebounding will be a major factor in this game. Offensive rebounding in built into the DNA of this Houston program, and BYU statistically is the best team in the nation at limiting opponent’s offenive rebounds. Keba Keita will have to continue to be a rebounding force, and BYU will need efforts from everywhere on the court on the glass.
I think BYU’s defense has improved enough to keep BYU in this game from start to finish. Ultimately, I believe Houston finds a way to take advantage of a few defensive lapses from BYU’s defense for some key threes and rides a racous crowd to a competitive victory.
Prediction: Houston 76, BYU 71
*Record Straight Up: 10-2
*Record Against the Spread: 7-5
* I’ll make a prediction for every game and track my record through the season
