I suppose, given that he was playing on an international stage over the past few weeks, and was doing so at an elite level, it only makes sense that top Chicago Cubs prospect Matt Shaw would be getting a lot of attention right now.
So let’s add some more praise to the pile, shall we?
The MLB Pipeline duo of Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo proposed their very early candidates for next year’s Rookie of the Year races in the AL and NL, and wouldn’t you know that Matt Shaw showed up on the list for each writer.
Although Nationals prospect Dylan Crews – the top position prospect from the 2023 MLB Draft that featured Shaw, and long considered a truly significant prospect – comes in at the top spot in the NL for both writers, here’s what they had to say about Shaw:
“Callis: Matt Shaw, INF – 2nd place
I don’t think he’ll make the Opening Day roster because the Cubs have a crowded roster of veterans. But he just kept getting better in his first pro season, and he played really well with Premier12. I think he can really, really hit and he’s going to rise quickly.
Mayo: Shaw – 3rd place
Everything you said about Shaw holds true. He’s going to hit his way into that lineup and make a big impact in Chicago.”
Callis placed Phillies pitching prospect Andrew Painter in his third spot, while Mayo had Pirates pitching prospect Bubba Chandler at number two.
Painter, 21, is a former(?) suuuuuper prospect who’d reached Double-A at 19 in his first full pro season, and was looking like he’d be dominating in the big leagues before he could legally drink. But an early-2023 torn UCL, combined with an unsuccessful attempt to rehab through it, led to a delayed Tommy John surgery that cost him both the 2023 and 2024 seasons. He returned to competitive action in the Arizona Fall League, though, and seemed to be just as dominant as he always was. So it’s not all that crazy to pick him here.
Chandler, who just turned 22, is the next big-time pitching prospect for the Pirates behind Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. He’s a former two-way player whose development has taken off after moving to pitching full-time. Because the Pirates are the Pirates, I’ll assume Chandler does not open the season in their rotation (though didn’t Skenes just teach them that it could cost them a draft pick?! And he got the full year of service time anyway … ), but he probably does come up with enough time to become a Rookie of the Year contender if he pitches well.
As for Shaw, it’s very nice to see him predicted for this kind of thing, but it’ll depend a lot on what the Cubs do with the roster this offseason. My gut tells me they would be happy for Shaw to be on the Opening Day roster as an everyday starter, but if Isaac Paredes is healthy, and if Nico Hoerner returns relatively quickly and completely from his forearm surgery, I don’t know that the Cubs would be justified in parking either of those two on the bench.
So, barring a Hoerner trade this offseason, what we might see happen is that Shaw opens the season at second base for the big league Cubs (assuming Hoerner is still on the shelf), and then the Cubs figure out what to do when Hoerner is actually ready to return. They might view it as a “don’t worry about two weeks from now” situation, and you just play the best player who is healthy at the time; then when Hoerner is ready, if everyone is still healthy AND if Shaw is raking in the bigs, you simply have to find a way coordinate playing time to make it work.
That’s the dream problem to have, and it might be what it takes for Shaw to be a Rookie of the Year winner in 2025, again, barring some big trade or injury.
Fun aside: while I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it – at least not compared to Shaw – you could imagine scenarios where as many as five other Cubs prospects blow up in the bigs in 2025 and compete for the award (Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcántara, James Triantos, Cade Horton).
