Boston Red Sox fans noticed an intriguing recurring theme in the coverage of their 2024 campaign, which has continued into the offseason: Jarren Duran continues to be criminally underrated as a player.
The 28-year-old has posted two straight breakout seasons for the Red Sox, but 2024 was his best work by far. Duran slashed .285/.342/.492 with a .834 OPS last season over a team-leading 160 games.
Still, he doesn’t garner the recognition he deserves among the best outfielders in the American League East. FanGraphs confirmed that with its projection of the 100 best MLB players in 2025. Duran ranked 100th — dead last — on FanGraphs’ list.
The AL East was stacked with outfielders in 2024. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto stole plenty of headlines for the Yankees and Daulton Varsho posted an elite defensive season for the Blue Jays. But Duran combined plenty of their best skills to become an All-Star and MVP-worthy performer last season.
Red Sox Jarren Duran disrespected by FanGraphs’ top 100 players projection for 2025
FanGraphs projected Duran so low in its top 100 due to his defensive inconsistency, but his progress in 2024 was massive and undeniable. Before last season, Duran had never been a plus defender.
projecting the top 100 players in baseball for 2025
(via fangraphs) pic.twitter.com/coyCtT4idd
— BrooksGate (@Brooks_Gate) December 16, 2024
He logged -7 and -6 defensive runs saved (DRS) in 2022 and 2023, respectively. In 2024, he posted an outstanding 23 DRS, six in left field and 17 in center field, and 11 outs above average. Duran also collected 12 outfield assists, a huge jump from the two he gathered the previous year.
Duran’s offense also took a huge leap from 2023 to ’24. He maintained a high average over 58 more games and found his home run swing in the process. Duran racked up 48 doubles, 14 triples, which ties Corbin Carroll for the league lead and 21 homers.
The outfielder’s speed remains one of the most electric aspects of his game. Duran stole 34 bags last season and often runs singles into doubles and doubles into triples. According to Baseball Savant, he owns a 98th-percentile baserunning run value and he clocked six runs via extra bases.
FanGraphs ranked Riley Greene, Steven Kwan, Yordan Alvarez, Wyatt Langford, Michael Harris II and plenty of other outfielders ahead of Duran in its top 100 projection. It would be hard to argue that any one of those players posted as well-rounded a season as Duran in 2024, and projecting him to regress so severely is unfounded based on his history.
Luckily for Duran, he seems to play better when his detractors are loud. He was disrespected by the fan vote ahead of the 2024 All-Star Game but went on to win game MVP. He got less credit than he should’ve in the real MVP race and unjustifiably ranks at the bottom of FanGraphs’ top 100 players list for next season, so Duran is sure to be even better than before by Opening Day 2025.
