It has been South Carolina’s season, and everyone else is just living in it. The Gamecocks lost five starters from last year’s squad — including No. 1 WNBA draft pick Aliyah Boston — that went undefeated until the national semifinal, where they fell to Caitlin Clark and Iowa. Dawn Staley didn’t need to rebuild, but rather revamped, retooled and reloaded. Guards Bree Hall and Raven Johnson, as well as forwards Ashlyn Watkins and Chloe Kitts, have shined in larger roles, as has senior center Kamilla Cardoso, a full-time starter and first-team All-SEC selection.
Senior guard Te-Hina Paopao was a perfect addition from the portal and freshman guard MiLaysia Fulwiley is a dynamic addition whose ceiling is even more exciting. The latter is playing her best basketball and last week became the first freshman since Candace Parker to take home the SEC tournament’s most outstanding player award.
Altogether it means the Gamecocks (32-0) are just as good as they were last year — once more going undefeated through the regular season and SEC tournament — or perhaps even better. Their offense is more diversified and dynamic, and they’re the third-best 3-point shooting team in the country (39.7%). And rest assured they still have their trademark depth that can wear out opponents over the course of a game.
Critical for a team that skews younger and relatively inexperienced, the Gamecocks are battled-tested, too. Six of their wins were decided by single digits, including nonconference dubs over Utah and North Carolina. This month was more of a nail-biter than usual for Gamecock fans, as each of South Carolina’s past four games were decided by 11 points or fewer, and it needed the now-iconic Cardoso buzzer-beater 3-pointer to take down Tennessee in the SEC tournament semifinals. But no one said championship squads can’t benefit from a little bit of luck.
On the line for the Gamecocks, who are now 103-3 over their past three seasons (!): the 10th undefeated season in NCAA Division I history, but perhaps more importantly to those in Columbia, a chance to win the program’s third national title in seven tournaments and bolster their argument as the sport’s latest dynasty.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa (29-4) won its third consecutive Big Ten tournament title and will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1992, when C. Vivian Stringer was the Hawkeyes’ coach. Iowa made the Final Four as a No. 2 seed last season behind guard Caitlin Clark, who followed that with a record-setting senior campaign in which she became the top scorer in Division I men’s and women’s hoops.
Clark leads Division I in scoring (31.9 PPG), assists (8.9 APG) and 3-pointers per game (5.2). She is also Iowa’s top rebounder at 7.3 per contest. Clark is the first Division I women’s player to top 3,000 points and 1,000 assists, plus the first to score 1,000-plus points in multiple seasons.
Sophomore forward Hannah Stuelke (14.6 PPG) and senior guard Kate Martin (12.9) also average in double-figures. Clark and fifth-year seniors Martin and guard Gabbie Marshall have played together for four seasons. Junior guard Sydney Affolter moved into the starting lineup after Molly Davis’ injury in the regular-season finale and played well in the Big Ten tournament.
Guard play is crucial in the NCAA tournament, and Iowa excels at that. Coach Lisa Bluder’s squad leads Division I in points (92.8) and assists (21.9) per game and is fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.59). — Michael Voepel
USC Trojans
JuJu Watkins admits she didn’t think USC would be this good this quickly. And yet, the Trojans (26-5) are the best they’ve been in decades. After dethroning Stanford by capturing the Pac-12 tournament crown — the program’s second overall and first since 2014 — it’s clear this group legitimately has its sights set on Cleveland. Coach Lindsay Gottlieb has already been to a Final Four before, with Cal in 2013.
Watkins has been as good as advertised (and perhaps even better), establishing herself as the country’s second-best scorer behind Iowa’s Clark (27.0 PPG) and a tantalizing future WNBA prospect. She will be one of the biggest stars of March.
And while the freshman guard has proved she can single-handedly win games, the Trojans’ overall growth in becoming a more well-rounded team is what will take them far. The Pac-12 championship game was a perfect example: Forward Rayah Marshall and Ivy League transfers McKenzie Forbes (guard), Kayla Padilla (guard) and Kaitlyn Davis (forward) made play after play on both ends to assert their will against the top-seeded Cardinal. “While we have selfless people who play roles,” Gottlieb said afterward, “they are hoopers.” The coach said her team is playing its best basketball at the right time, and it’s hard to argue with her.
Of note: USC’s run could have historic implications. The last time USC hosted NCAA tournament games, in 1994, was also the last time the Trojans advanced beyond the first weekend of the Big Dance.
Texas Longhorns
Texas’ lineup changed in late December when star guard Rori Harmon suffered a season-ending knee injury. Losing her after just 12 games was an emotionally tough obstacle, but it didn’t derail the Longhorns (30-4) because they still possessed so much talent and grit. They finished second in the Big 12 regular-season standings and then won the conference tournament in their last year in the league before joining the SEC.
Freshman standout Madison Booker (16.9 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.5 SPG) was the Big 12 co-player of the year and tournament MVP. She could make her presence known big time in the NCAA tournament. She has played a point forward role, with guards Shaylee Gonzales (52) and Shay Holle (33) the top 3-point shooting threats.
The Longhorns also have a powerful inside game, led by forwards Taylor Jones (12.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Aaliyah Moore (10.9, 5.8) and DeYona Gaston (8.3, 4.0). Texas led the Big 12 in scoring (81.2 PPG). And even if the defense isn’t quite as good without Harmon, the total package still makes Texas a potential Final Four contender. — Michael Voepel
NO. 2 SEEDS
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The bad news for Notre Dame fans this year: Junior guard Olivia Miles remained sidelined the entire season while recovering from a February 2023 knee injury. The good news? Freshman guard Hannah Hidalgo arrived and instantly became a top two-way player in the country. She ranks top-five nationally in scoring (23.3 PPG) and is No. 1 in steals (4.6 SPG), while also tallying 6.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game.
But the Irish (26-6) procured their first ACC tournament title under coach Niele Ivey not just because of the heroics of Hidalgo. Junior guard Sonia Citron and senior forward Maddy Westbeld found their groove — those two plus Hidalgo scored or assisted on 53 of Notre Dame’s 55 points in the ACC championship game — and the team as a whole emerged as a defensive force, with Hidalgo naturally spearheading the charge.
Notre Dame is playing its best basketball right now, but the Irish’s depth remains an issue as they might be down to a six-player rotation. Senior forward Kylee Watson’s status moving forward is unknown after she suffered a knee injury in the ACC tournament.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes (25-5) won the Big Ten regular-season title, but enter the NCAA tournament having lost two in a row. They fell at Iowa in the regular-season finale — a predictable loss — but then were upset in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament by Maryland. That was alarming, especially considering it was a 21-point loss and coach Kevin McGuff said his team didn’t really show up.
The key for Ohio State is putting that performance in perspective compared to how the team played most of this season, which included a 15-game winning streak from Jan. 5 to Feb. 28. Ohio State and Michigan were tied atop the Big Ten in scoring defense (63.8 PPG), while the Buckeyes led the league in steals (10.6).
The backcourt of Jacy Sheldon and Celeste Taylor, both fifth-year seniors, is one of the best in the country from a defensive standpoint. Sheldon (18.0 PPG) and Taylor (10.2) also average in double figures, along with forward Cotie McMahon (14.1) and guard/forward Taylor Thierry (11.4). Ohio State upset UConn on the way to the Elite Eight last season and hopes to make the Final Four this year. — Michael Voepel
Stanford Cardinal
In the last year of the Pac-12, it was fitting that Stanford (28-5) won the league’s final regular-season title. The campaign started with questions, however, as there was uncertainty over how the Cardinal would rebound following the departure of Haley Jones to the WNBA as well as three transfers.
